Progressives won big Michigan primaries. Now comes the hard part

• Michigan progressives won several competitive races in Michigan on Tuesday, including key primaries for US Senate and House
• But can they win in the general election? Observers say their path could be complicated despite good conditions for Democrats
• They’re ‘going to prove that bold, shake-up-the-system economic fighters can win in battleground states,’ said one supporter

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Progressives won a series of high-profile Michigan primaries on Tuesday, energizing Democratic voters with promises to pursue ambitious goals like universal health care and getting money out of politics. 

But now comes the hard part for Abdul El-Sayed and other far-left candidates: Winning over moderate and independent voters who often decide general elections in the swing state. 

El-Sayed will likely be competitive against Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s “toss-up” US Senate race because political conditions favor Democrats, but his ideological views could make it a “heavier lift,” said Jessica Taylor, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

“You had two very different visions for the Democratic Party, and the race ended up almost evenly divided,” she said of El-Sayed’s one percentage point win over the establishment-backed Haley Stevens. 

“Republicans have been salivating to run against El-Sayed — they certainly see him as the weaker candidate.”

Related:

• How Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan: Big turnout, liberal towns, walkup votes
• Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate primary in progressive ‘shockwave’
• Who is Abdul El-Sayed? What to know about Michigan Democrats US Senate winner

Rogers quickly went on the attack Wednesday, reminding his Republican supporters of El-Sayed’s affiliation with Hasan Piker, a progressive political commentator and internet personality who’s been accused of antisemitism.

“I never in my lifetime, never in my lifetime, thought I would be running against a guy who believed that America deserved 9/11,” Rogers said, attributing a controversial Piker comment to El-Sayed. 

“The whole country is looking at us here in Michigan. They’re looking at you, and they’re hoping we do everything that we can do together to make sure that we stop this in its tracks.” 

El-Sayed made clear he was ready for a fight, suggesting Rogers and other Republicans are using his full name — Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed — to try to use his heritage and faith against him, arguing it won’t work.

“If you can’t say the name … keep the name out of your damn mouth,” El-Sayed said.

Calling Rogers a “corporate sellout,” El-Sayed also challenged his rival to five debates, arguing Rogers’ “policy, politics, vision and perspective are old.” 

‘Mushy moderates’ and Democratic Socialists

El-Sayed headlined a banner night for Michigan progressives, who lost some races but won even more, including congressional victories by community organizer Will Lawrence and Donavan McKinney, who successfully ousted two-term US Rep. Shri Thanedar of Detroit. 

They’re “going to prove that bold, shake-up-the-system economic fighters can win in battleground states and districts,” Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, told Bridge.

A growing number of Michigan independents are not “mushy moderates,” but rather people who are angry with and distrustful of the political status quo, Green argued. 

Lawrence’s win in the 7th Congressional District primary will pit him against incumbent US Rep. Tom Barrett, R-Charlotte, in the general election. 

“Do voters weigh their dislike of a socialist candidate higher than their dislike of Donald Trump?” said pollster Richard Czuba. “That’s the test right there in that race. Which one wins out?”

Lawrence was previously a member of the Democratic Socialists of America but told CNN on Monday that he let his membership lapse “within the last month.” 

El-Sayed does not identify as a Democratic Socialist, but other progressives who won Tuesday do, including McKinney who defeated Thanedar in the 13th Congressional District. 

The district is heavily Democratic, making McKinney the heavy general election favorite over Republican T.P. Nykoriak.

That means Detroit, the state’s largest city, could soon be fully represented by Democratic Socialists in Congress. US Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Detroit, easily won her three-way primary on Tuesday.

Eyes on November

Michigan is a critical battleground nationally. Democratic leadership sees a path to win back the Senate from Republicans and create a congressional roadblock for President Donald Trump’s final two years in office.

But to do so, they’ll have to defend the seat that retiring Sen. Gary Peters is leaving. 

Republicans view the race as a prime pickup opportunity. The Senate Leadership Fund on Wednesday launched a six-figure ad campaign calling El-Sayed “uniquely dangerous and unqualified” to represent Michigan. 

Many prominent Democrats, too, had backed Stevens over El-Sayed on the belief that she would have better odds against Rogers. 

Among them: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who on Wednesday instead backed El-Sayed, saying she’ll support “every Democrat who won up and down the ballot” as Democrats “fight like hell together to win in November.”

Democratic turnout in the Tuesday primary points to excitement that could translate to general election wins, said Katie Jesaitis, public affairs manager at the Lansing-based firm Bellwether Public Relations.

More than 1.5 million Michigan voters cast ballots in the Democratic US Senate primary, compared to about 930,000 in the contested Republican gubernatorial primary.

While progressives aren’t likely to immediately pave the way on issues like universal health care, aspirational candidates with optimistic visions for the future could be a powerful motivator for Democrats, Jesaitis said.  

“We’ve got years and years and years of Republicans not meeting the moment,” she said. “It’s going to be a really wonderful opportunity for the Democratic Party to coalesce around a positive future message.” 

An ‘open question’

But some observers told Bridge that progressives, and El-Sayed in particular, have their work cut out for them in convincing moderate Democrats to turn out in November, especially in vote-rich Democratic strongholds like Detroit that overwhelmingly backed Stevens. 

And put simply, “there are a lot of Jewish Democrats that are just not going to vote for that guy,” said Adrian Hemond, a Democratic strategist with the Grassroots Midwest consulting firm in Lansing. 

El-Sayed’s ability to turn out traditional Democratic coalitions in the general election is “an open question,” Hemond said.

El-Sayed can’t expect moderate Democrats to automatically “jump on board” with him after the bitter primary against Stevens, said Czuba, the pollster. “He has to go to them and win them over.” 

Addressing supporters Wednesday morning in downtown Detroit, El-Sayed sought to begin doing that, showing up with onetime rival Mallory McMorrow and complimenting Stevens’ work. 

“She loves democracy like I love democracy,” he said of Stevens, “and whatever differences that we might have had in the primary, they pale in comparison to what unifies us.”

Still, he reiterated the significance of defeating Stevens in an environment where record-setting amounts of money were spent on her behalf. 

“What we showed is that the power of many is greater than the power of their money,” he said, adding: “My hope is that our democracy will never be the same.”

This article first appeared on Bridge Michigan and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.