Welcome back, I’m still Malachi Barrett.

Our last City Council Notebook partly focused on new mayoral primary polling that showed Council President Mary Sheffield way ahead of her eight opponents. Today I wanted to dive deeper into the numbers after talking with the person who put them together: Glengariff Group Founder Richard Czuba.

Czuba sent me the full results, which I’ve posted online here. The Detroit News and WDIV-TV commissioned the poll, which surveyed 500 likely primary voters from May 27-29 and has a 4.4% margin of error.

It shows Sheffield holds 38% of the vote, followed by Rev. Solomon Kinloch Jr. (14%), former Police Chief James Craig (9%), former nonprofit CEO and council president Saunteel Jenkins (8%), Attorney Todd Perkins (4%), Council Member Fred Durhal III (2%), businessman Jonathan Barlow (1%) and lastly, Joel Haashiim and DaNetta Simpson, each with 0.6%.

Detroit’s Aug. 5 mayoral primary is nonpartisan. Two candidates with the most votes move on to the November general election. The results suggest a tight battle for a coveted second-place spot, with 22% of voters undecided.

But Czuba said Sheffield will also compete for undecided voters, who have a good impression of her. Leads across nearly all subgroups of voters, including Black voters, seniors, men, women and union voters.

“She is not at her ceiling; that’s the thing about Mary Sheffield’s numbers that we need to understand,” Czuba said. “She has room to grow, too. A lot of people may like her and have not made a choice yet.”

One caveat: The poll represents a fraction of primary voters who also represent a fraction of the city, but they disproportionately influence elections. Polls represent a snapshot of how some people feel at a specific point in time. I’m also rounding these numbers.

With that in mind, let’s get into it:

Good job, not enough

Czuba said it’s remarkable how much these voters support Mayor Mike Duggan and the job he’s done since being elected in 2013. Voters approved of his performance by a margin of 84% to 7%, and most believe Detroit is a better place to live today compared to a decade ago (73%).

Czuba said the poll shows that primary voters largely believe Detroit is on the right track (71%), but acknowledge there are ongoing challenges to address issues such as public safety, affordable housing, neighborhood improvement, infrastructure, education and the city’s finances.

“That doesn’t necessarily mean everything is hunky dory and fine,” Czuba said. “Voters are acknowledging how far the city has come but also say we have a lot of work to do. They’re not saying to junk (Duggan) or follow him to a T.”

Voters largely believe Duggan has done a good job, but they’re split on whether his successor should adopt all of his policies. The poll found 42% of voters want the next mayor to move in a new direction, while 38% want them to follow Duggan’s policies.

Sheffield had the highest favorability (63%) and lowest unfavorability (5%) among likely voters of any candidate. Czuba said the poll shows Detroit voters are somewhat satisfied with the political establishment.

Kinloch tried to cast himself as a political outsider at the first mayoral debate, arguing Detroit leaders have failed to address entrenched problems. Czuba said it’s a “thin line to walk” when primary voters seemingly like what elected leaders have done in the last decade.

“I’m not quite sure voters are looking for an outsider,” Czuba said. “Mike Duggan and Mary Sheffield’s numbers are through the roof. (Kinloch) is trying to create a wedge with those people who say we need to do more and go further. He’s trying to make it sound like those who are in charge refuse to do more.”

Primary voters especially believe the next mayor needs to hone in on neighborhood development, — 66% of voters said Detroit spends its resources mostly on wealthy neighborhoods and 69% say Detroit focuses too much on downtown.

Battle for the silver

Sheffield is in a strong position with high name recognition and favorable ratings, Czuba said. Czuba said no opponent has effectively attacked her, and she has an opportunity to keep gathering support because Sheffield has high name recognition and favorability even among undecided voters.

“Nobody has laid a glove on her,” Czuba said. “She has no negatives right now. To beat her, that’s going to have to change. At the same time, who is going to run the negatives against her when you have the other three candidates jockeying for the No. 2 position and they’re fighting for their own name ID right now.”

The main competition for the runner-up spot is among Craig, Kinloch, and Jenkins, Czuba said. Each of them were known by at least two-thirds of voters. 

Czuba sees little room for Craig to expand support beyond his current base. Craig has the second-highest name recognition (83%) but the highest unfavorability (38%) among voters, which Czuba attributes to his Republican identity.

“When you’re that far underwater in your name ID, that’s telling us something major,” Czuba said.

Craig has been running for various offices as a Republican since 2021 and Craig has made it a talking point on the campaign trail. Primary voters say lower crime is a reason the city is better off, but only 5% credit Craig for improving public safety.

Czuba said Kinloch has a plausible path to expand turnout beyond traditional primary voters through his church and community connections. The United Auto Workers is hosting a campaign rally for Kinloch on June 7 in Detroit with President Shawn Fain.

Jenkins could benefit from voters’ satisfaction with the city’s direction, but Czuba said she occupies a similar lane as Sheffield. Jenkins served on the council from 2010 to 2014 before leaving mid-term to run The Heat and Warmth Fund. Czuba said Jenkins needs to do more to differentiate herself.

“For Jenkins, the concern may be that if you’re happy with the direction of the city and think it can go further, why choose someone who was on the council versus someone who is on the council? ” Czuba said.

Free campaign advice

Czuba said the poll shows there are a few policy ideas that candidates would be wise to integrate into their platforms.

Detroit primary voters nearly unanimously support (94%) offering low-interest loans to residents to help them fix up their houses and properties, while 78% of voters said tax breaks should be offered to smaller neighborhood projects.

“This is low-hanging fruit that every one of these candidates should be picking up,” Czuba said.

Primary voters largely reject (79%) using city resources to support the federal government in removing undocumented immigrants.

Voters said public safety is the top issue facing the city, especially among older voters who are more likely to participate in the primary.

Affordable housing and homelessness ranked second and were strong concerns for voters under 50. In fact, these were the top issues for voters under 30. Emphasizing affordable housing could help candidates appeal to a broader electorate than the traditional senior base, Czuba said.

Public transportation ranked lower than issues like neighborhood improvement, jobs and the economy, roads and infrastructure, education, the general growth of Detroit and government finances. However, voters under 30 said it was the most important service to improve along with housing.