Mayoral hopeful Mary Sheffield is pulling ahead in a new Detroit primary poll, the first conducted since the field of candidates has solidified. 

Target-Insyght Executive Director Ed Sarpolus said his firm’s poll shows three other candidates positioned as top contenders: Former Police Chief James Craig, Triumph Church Rev. Solomon Kinloch Jr. and former nonprofit CEO Saunteel Jenkins. Sarpolus said the poll reflects the strength of candidates’ name recognition across the city, but much can change once campaigns start spending valuable cash on advertisements.

“If Craig had the funds, he could move very quickly into second place,” Sarpolus said. “Saunteel Jenkins could move quickly if she had money. The top candidates are Sheffield and Kinloch right now, only because Jenkins and Craig have yet to invest major dollars.” 

Sarpolus said this is the first time in decades that the next mayor wasn’t obvious by the start of May. That’s because, he said, a lack of advertising purchases shows him the business community isn’t impressed enough with any candidate to invest heavily in their campaign. Sarpolus said it could also reflect concerns about the Trump administration. 

A lot of money left sitting on the table for now could propel a trailing candidate to the top of the pack, Sarpolus said.

“When I check out the ad buys going into media, there is nowhere near the money commitment by businesses as in the past,” Sarpolus said. “For the last 30 years of my life, business told us who the next mayor was going to be by the investment and money in the campaigns.”

Campaign fundraising activity was last reported in December 2024, and candidates won’t have to file another financial report until July. 

Polling well can help candidates raise money, and it’s also a measure used by some organizations to decide who gets invited to mayoral forums and debates.

The Detroit Regional Chamber announced Friday that participants for a May 29 debate on Mackinac Island were selected by considering polling, endorsements, leadership experience and insights from members of the chamber’s political action committee. Five candidates will debate during the Mackinac Policy Conference: Craig, Durhal, Jenkins, Kinloch and Sheffield.

Karen Dumas, a past communications chief for former Mayor Dave Bing and co-host of the No BS News Hour, said there’s one thing polls say at this point in the race.

“Nothing,” she said. “It’s early. I also know that there’s so many variables that impact the outcome of a poll. Who’s asking? How are the questions framed? What method are you using? As we saw in the last presidential election, nothing matters but the vote.” 

The poll was conducted from May 4 to 7 among 400 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Voters were contacted through landlines and cell phones. 

“I don’t think anybody should be so comfortable, so snug, or so presumptuous that they will make it to the general election,” Dumas said. “Everybody should run this race like they want to win it, and I think that residents ought to really pick apart what they’re saying, what they’re doing, and then make the best decision that they can make.” 

The Target-Insyght survey comes nearly three months after the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus released a February poll conducted by Douglas Fulmer & Associates. The February poll found Sheffield had 34% support, followed by undecided at 21%, Craig at 20% and Jenkins at 12%. 

Only 10% of voters surveyed in May were undecided, with higher percentages among women (15%), seniors (16%) and Black voters (12%). 

Sheffield told reporters she’s not focusing on how the poll reinforced her presumed front-runner status during a Thursday campaign event at Martin Evers Missionary Baptist Church. Campaign staff said the Target-Insyght data comes relatively close to internal polls they’ve kept private. 

“I work hard every day; I’m out here really just connecting with voters,” Sheffield said. “I want to ensure that we’re covering all of our bases and not trying to base any of my decisions on a poll.” 

Kinloch’s campaign had a more enthusiastic response to the latest polling, which showed his support rise from 5% to 25% across the two polls. The campaign said Kinloch is “surging.”

“For nearly 30 years, he has delivered in ways that career politicians have either been unwilling or unable to do,” the campaign said in a statement. “Working in partnership with business, philanthropy, unions and the community, Pastor Kinloch has led on the issues that are top of mind to so many Detroiters — job opportunities, education, child care, homelessness and hunger.” 

Sarpolus said Kinloch’s rise in polling likely reflects his ability to engage a large number of people through Triumph Church, a century-old evangelical religious organization with campuses across the region. 

Target-Insyght polling from the last mayoral race showed Mayor Mike Duggan way out ahead of his primary opponents, but didn’t reflect the final vote. A May poll from the 2021 race showed Duggan with 64% of the vote. He won the primary with 74%. 

“The only poll that counts is the one in August,” said Anthony Adams, an attorney who unsuccessfully ran against Duggan in 2021. Adams said he expects the race will come down to Sheffield and Kinloch, the latter of whom has Adams’ support. 

“As we move forward people will begin to focus more and more on those two people as the candidates, because they have the name, they have the money, and they have the resources necessary to push their message,” Adams said. “You know what Kinloch is going to do. He’s going to pound the pavement and touch as many voters as possible.” 

Adams said the “numbers are changing dramatically” as some candidates start to gain traction and others struggle.

“For someone at the lower end of the poll, they would have to spend upward of a million dollars to create the level of name recognition (others have),” Adams said. 

Jenkins experienced a backward slide between the two polls, dropping from 12% to 7%. Roughly 32% of voters polled in May had a favorable opinion of her, up from 28% in February. 

“I was quite surprised with all her work with corporate people, she was council president, but I don’t see – where’s the money, where’s the organization?” Sarpolus said. “Her work with the corporate people hasn’t transferred into significant dollars to be competitive against Mary Sheffield.” 

The February poll was taken before Perkins officially entered the race. He gained just 1 percentage point of support in the May poll, rising to 5%. 

“Todd Perkins has been spending money, and he’s invested time doing a lot of work in the city,” Sarpolus said. “The difficulty is he has such little name recognition that he just needs to spend money just to build it. The money is not adding votes or getting more movement, he’s still building a base of name recognition.”

Durhal polled at 1% in the February survey, which contributed to being left off the stage at an AFL-CIO endorsement forum in May. His campaign expressed frustration about using outdated data. The May poll found him at just 2%.

Durhal said in an interview that polls can be used to shape “disingenuous” narratives that narrow down the field prematurely. In an interview before the May poll was released, Durhal said his campaign was “surging” as he canvassed across the city. 

“For Fred Durhal, businesses looked like they were supporting him, but in politics, you have your own entry fee,” Sarpolus said. “Durhal has worked hard, but he’s never had that base of support to have the money to capitalize and show he warranted more investment.” 

Craig has enjoyed strong name recognition in Detroit after being as the city’s second-longest serving police chief. But the polls show being well-known and well-liked aren’t the same. More poll participants had an unfavorable impression of Craig in May (37%) and February (35%).

“Craig is considered a volatile candidate — he’s very strong willed,” Sarpolus said. “The question is with Craig, did he wait too long to get in? He was so late to come to the table, and so now he’s playing catch up to get the money to build the base.” 

Adams said the momentum of a campaign has to either grow or sizzle out. It takes money, volunteers, support from institutional leaders and a relentless ground game to build a winning coalition, he said. 

“If we got a pool of 100,000 people that are the hardcore voters in Detroit, you will be foolish not to communicate with them,” Adams said. “ I’m sure all the candidates are doing what they do to communicate with that base. But if you can generate five to 10,000 additional votes from people who are not a part of that base, that gives you a tremendous advantage, especially in a large primary like this.”

Adams said it will likely take 40,000 to 50,000 votes to advance from the primary to the general election. 

There were 70,235 votes cast in the 2021 primary, which featured 10 candidates, and Duggan won with 50,856 votes. Four years earlier, Duggan won the 2017 primary with 43,519 votes out of 64,267 total. 

“The conversations around polls are to make people feel like ‘you should go ahead and go this way,’” Dumas said. “I’m going to continue to watch this through the end. I will literally make my decision, if not closer to Election Day, it may even be that day. I’m taking everything in.”