Voting on Nov. 5, 2024, At Mark Twain School in Detroit. Credit: Micah Walker, BridgeDetroit

Sherry Gay-Dagnogo hates to say I told you so. 

For months, she said she had warned the Harris-Walz campaign that their message was not hitting with Detroiters. Vice President Kamala Harris didn’t outline a clear vision for change, Gay-Dagnogo said, didn’t empower surrogates to communicate economic policies, underestimated a revolt of young voters angered by the mounting death toll in Gaza and failed to disrupt negative perceptions shaped by Republican advertisements. 

Former President Donald Trump swept back into power with decisive wins and record turnout in swing states, including Michigan. Detroit turnout was only 47%, lower than Democrats expected. Not only did Harris trail 19,307 votes behind President Joe Biden in 2020, she earned less than Hillary Clinton in 2016. 

Gay-Dagnogo, who was reelected Tuesday to the Detroit school board, said Trump’s victory confirmed her worst fears. Now Detroit leaders are contending with what will likely be a frayed relationship with the incoming president, and potential drops in federal support for struggling communities. 

Detroit Community Schools Community District Board Member Sherry Gay-Dagnogo said Kamala Harris didn’t empower surrogates to communicate economic policies, underestimated young voters angered by the death toll in Gaza and failed to disrupt negative perceptions shaped by Republican advertisements, among other things.
Credit: Malachi Barrett, BridgeDetroit

Gay-Dagnogo said she’s among a group of Black political leaders whose concerns were ignored by the campaign. 

“I wish I wasn’t right,” she said Wednesday. “It was too little too late and that’s always the Democratic way. I don’t know if they’ll learn. They’ve become immune to the stench of dysfunction.”

The Harris campaign engaged Black voters with near-daily events at churches, union halls, house parties, Divine Nine Greek organizations, barber shops and beauty salons. They brought in actors, musicians, political leaders and influencers to persuade voters. 

Vice President Kamala Harris and president-elect Donald Trump. (Bridge photos by Brett Farmer and Brayan Gutierrez)

Branden Snyder, director of Michigan Election Defense Coalition, said he encountered voters who didn’t think Harris was talking enough about improving the economy and working class issues. Harris had a plan to provide down-payment assistance to first-time homebuyers and tax credits for new parents, but voters weren’t familiar with it. 

Part of the issue, Snyder said, was the truncated campaign season Harris had to work with. She replaced Biden in June and was challenged with creating policies that differentiated herself from an unpopular administration within a matter of months.

“People don’t feel like they’re put back together coming out of the pandemic,” Snyder said. “Her policy platform was more robust than Trump’s; he wasn’t offering any specifics. People were looking to hear what can government do, what can she do. That was a miss. There wasn’t enough conversation about the rising cost of rent, student tuition, good jobs.” 

Benji Ballin, 28, was a paid canvasser for the Harris campaign who said he encountered enough Detroiters on the fence to make him nervous. He said some voters planned to vote in down-ballot races but not the presidential race. 

Clips circulating on social media ahead of the election showed Harris saying she wouldn’t do anything differently than Biden and supported economic policies that would benefit all of society rather than Black people specifically. Social media users sharing the interviews said it showed Harris wasn’t focused on helping Black voters. 

Scott Holiday, director of nonprofit advocacy group Detroit Action, said Harris couldn’t articulate a winning message on improving the economy. Instead, Holiday said voters were told to fear Trump. 

“We saw the best turnout in 2008 and that happened through hope and change – people wanted something and were willing to (vote) to get it,” Holiday said. “That simply wasn’t the case here. The majority of Democratic messaging was ‘be afraid of this man.’ I don’t like Trump’s messaging but he was giving his base something to fight for.” 

Justin Onwenu, a Detroit activist and entrepreneurship director for the city, said rage against Trump didn’t translate into a Democratic victory in 2016. Onwenu, a delegate for Bernie Sanders in 2020, was knocking doors for the Harris campaign in Detroit. 

“I was shocked by how many people said they already voted, basically allowing us to turn attention to people who hadn’t,” Onwenu said. “There are some voters who are cynical and dissatisfied with everything, (who say) nothing ever changes. You could write 20 different stories about what Michigan voters care about and it would be true.”

Branden Snyder, director of Michigan Election Defense Coalition, take part in a BridgeDetroit Community Conversation on voter access on June 18, 2024. Credit: Quinn Banks, BridgeDetroit

Snyder worked for Clinton’s 2016 campaign. He said the Harris team made a similar mistake by trying to pull Republicans to their side. Allying with former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter may have done more harm than good, he said.

Snyder said former President Bill Clinton also “didn’t do any favors” by saying Israel was forced to kill civilians during a campaign stop in Benton Harbor. Arab American and Muslim communities were deeply angered by Harris’ support for Israel’s wars in Lebanon and Gaza.

Gay-Dagnogo said the war turned off young college students who viewed it as a human justice issue.

Trump overtly pledged to end the wars during visits with Muslim leaders in Michigan. 

Harris pledged to secure a ceasefire but ignored calls to end military aid for Israel. During her final campaign rally in Michigan, Harris said she would “will do everything in my power to end the war in Gaza.” 

Holiday said the Harris campaign may have focused too much on the prospect of a national abortion ban. Though reproductive freedom is vitally important, he said, “people wanted to vote with their wallet.” 

Gay-Dagnogo agreed. She argues the campaign put too much focus on protecting abortion rights in a state that already mobilized voters around that issue in 2023. 

“Black elected women (told the campaign) the community is tired of hearing about abortion,” Gay-Dagnogo said. “It’s an important issue but we want to get bread and butter issues in the way the inner city needs to hear. The housing crisis, the cost of food.” 

Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz made abortion the centerpiece of his closing argument to Detroiters during a Monday campaign visit. 

Snyder said the emphasis on the potential threat Trump poses to democratic norms, while important, was a nebulous issue for working class voters. 

“Don’t get me wrong, I believe it and understand the concerns of Project 2025, but for a lot of Black voters democracy doesn’t work in a lot of places already,” Snyder said. “I don’t know if the hand wringing around fascism was enough to move people.” 

Malachi Barrett is a mission-oriented reporter working to liberate information for Detroiters. Barrett previously worked for MLive covering local news and statewide politics in Muskegon, Kalamazoo,...

3 replies on “Democrats overestimated Detroit turnout. What happened?”

  1. You left out some very important statistics. You wrote ” Detroit turnout was only 47%,” which mean what? What is the reference point 2020? . You also wrote ” Detroit turnout was only 47%, lower than Democrats expected” What was the Democrats expected?. My hypothesis is the reason that Harris lost the election was not because of the Latinos, Arabs, or white women voted for Trump. It was because Black Votes stayed home, in Major Cities like, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Milwaukee.

  2. How could Harris articulate a vision for “change” when she is the sitting Vice President and said she wouldn’t do anything different from Biden?

    Harris/Waltz campaign seemed to have two issues:

    1. Trump bad.

    2. We will protect your right to abort the baby (you can’t afford to have because of our economic policies).

    Hundreds of BILLIONS given to Israel and Ukraine.

    Yet ZERO for Americans.

    The Butzel Rec Center just opened up its ice rink TWO MONTHS late….they were “renovating” and apparently it took from May-November to change the lights and paint the walls.

    Add to that the ridiculous amount of crime, Venezuelans taking over every empty house in Detroit while we are being told that there is a shortage of “affordable “ housing, hundreds of thousands of missing children from the border insanity, hundreds of thousands of dead, mutilated and maimed Palestinians and Lebanese, crushing restrictions on small businesses, vaccine mandates during COVID (no my body, my choice), rampant inflation and price surges……

    Yeah, it was hard to get anyone out to the polls to vote for four more years of that.

    None of the people who voted for Trump, myself included, have ANY illusions as to his character. But what we have now is a chance to survive, to be left alone at least. The alternative was 4 more years of institutional chaos, censorship, wars, bleeding the treasury, crime, an open border, rising prices, and so on…

    So a lot of us “garbage” people voted for less insanity rather than more….

  3. The Democrats were banking on a huge Harris turnout in Detroit based on racial factors in which the turnout was heavy in her favor, some 90 or so percent. The other 10 percent experienced a reality awakening and finally realized that we cannot make decisions based on race. Many ppl voted for Obama based on race and nothing was achieved for blacks at all during that presidency.
    One can support a candidate for whatever reason but the fact remain that under the leadership of two Democrats the economy was questionable, black homeownership plummeted and the cost of good and services skyrocketed to high levels. Ppl need to look at this from a different perspective.

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