Michigan’s 28th tornado of the year struck Detroit on Thursday. Though it was the first touchdown in the city since 1997, the conditions that brought it on are poised to become more frequent in coming years due to climate change.
Typically, Michigan averages about 15 tornadoes a year. But increased warming and atmospheric changes are affecting where, when and how severe tornadoes are. Last year there were 33 tornadoes in Michigan.
Thursday’s tornado, which touched down in the city’s lower east side and left a trail of damage across Belle Isle, cannot be directly attributed to climate change. But the atmospheric conditions that can fuel severe thunderstorms are being influenced by a warming climate, said Richard Rood, a professor emeritus at the University of Michigan whose research includes climate shifts and adaptation in Detroit.
Rood said a persistent area of high pressure and heat in the South—which is also influenced by climate change—has helped shape the weather pattern across the Great Lakes region.
“The background conditions that are conducive to the formation of severe storms and the formation of tornadoes are becoming more common,” said Rood. “The strong trend here is the increase of water vapor in the atmosphere. This will be a typical situation going forward.”
Around 85 million people in the South are expected to be affected by a “dangerous humid heat” into early next week, according to the research nonprofit Climate Central.
Warmer air can hold more moisture, which can create more frequent and intense precipitation events. Precipitation in Detroit is almost 5 inches below normal this year. But in just the last few days Detroit has had almost as much rain as the whole month of August, said Trent Frey, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in White Lake Township.
“August was relatively quiet across the area, so this was kind of a return to a stormy, summery kind of atmosphere and pattern,” said Frey.
The next few weeks are expected to be warmer than normal conditions but with average precipitation, said Frey.
Frey said NWS is working on finalizing the survey for Thursday’s tornado rating.
Reporter Jasmine Snow contributed.
